Economist
Oliver’s Insights – Gulf War 3 – the threat to economies and markets from the US/Iran war
5 March
Key Points The start of a war between the US and Israel and Iran poses the risk of a significant disruption to global economic growth given the likelihood of significant disruption to the supply of oil, particularly through the Strait of...[Read More]
Oliver’s Insights – The outlook for Australian shares – is the long underperformance versus global shares over?
26 February
Key points Over the long-term Australian shares have been a relatively strong performer, but it does go through relatively long periods of out and underperformance versus global shares. We see more upside in Australian shares supported by the...[Read More]
Oliver’s insights – Nine key charts for investors to keep an eye on
19 February
Key points This year has started off rather messy with geopolitical threats and worries around AI disruption and valuations. We are mildly upbeat on shares for the year but see a 15% or so correction as likely along the way. Nine key charts worth...[Read More]
Oliver’s insights – Inflation, rate hikes and public spending – Q&A
12 February
Key points Keeping inflation low and around target is important in terms of maximising living standards in Australia. We are optimistic that much of the recent rise in inflation will prove temporary. But some may reflect the economy hitting...[Read More]
Oliver’s Insights – RBA starts the year off with a rate hike
5 February
Key points The RBA hiked its cash rate by 0.25% to 3.85% as widely expected in response to inflation running above target. Its commentary was cautious and hawkish with inflation now expected to stay above target for longer even with assumptions...[Read More]
Oliver’s Insights – From the age of the economist to the age of the populist – key insights from economics, why many are ignored & what it means for investors
29 January
Key points Economics provides a range of insights including that: there is no free lunch; prices in free markets are usually best at allocating scarce resources; government policy comes with benefits and costs; productivity underpins living...[Read More]
Oliver’s Insights – The investment Outlook for 2026 – expect a rough but, ultimately, ok ride
22 January
Key points 2025 was another strong year for investors with shares up strongly on the back of better than feared growth and profits and global central banks cutting rates. Balanced super funds returned around 9%. Volatility rose though mainly on...[Read More]
Oliver’s insights – 2025 turned out pretty good, but what about 2026 – still at the bliss point?
18 December
Key points The key themes for 2025 were: tariff turmoil; global resilience helped by AI enthusiasm; sticky inflation; lower rates; and lots of geopolitical noise. For the third year in a row, returns were strong, albeit they slowed. 2026 is...[Read More]
Oliver’s insights – Trump 2.0: Why investors should expect a somewhat rougher ride, but it may not be as bad as feared
21 November
Key points – The economic and financial environment today is more challenging than when Trump first took over in 2017: inflation is a bit higher, the budget deficit is worse, bond yields are higher and shares are more expensive. – He also faces...[Read More]
Oliver’s insights – 2025 turned out pretty good, but what about 2026 – still at the bliss point?
11 December
Key points The key themes for 2025 were: tariff turmoil; global resilience helped by AI enthusiasm; sticky inflation; lower rates; and lots of geopolitical noise. For the third year in a row, returns were strong, albeit they slowed. 2026 is...[Read More]
Oliver’s Insights – Australian home prices up solidly – expect some slowing in 2026
4 December
Key points Cotality data shows national average home prices rose strongly again in November, but with the pace of growth slowing slightly to 1%mom. Near record low vacancy rates is contributing to a pickup in annual rental growth to 5%yoy. The...[Read More]
Oliver’s Insights – Housing affordability at a record low – here’s four key ways to fix it
27 November
Key points With the latest surge in home prices relative to incomes housing affordability is at a new record low. This is adding to a slide in home ownership and rising inequality. The key to sustainably improving housing affordability is to...[Read More]
Oliver’s Insights – Share market wobbles – what are the negatives and positives?
20 November
Key points Rich valuations, AI bubble worries and uncertainty about central bank rate cuts are the main negatives for shares at present and could see recent falls extend further. Against this though, global profit growth remains strong and...[Read More]
Oliver’s Insights – Investment cycles – what are they and why you need to be aware of them
23 October
Key points Cyclical fluctuations are a key aspect of investment markets. Most are driven by economic developments but get magnified by swings in investor sentiment. Of particular importance are the long-term cycles which are often driven by waves...[Read More]
Investment markets and key developments – Weekly market update 10-10-2025
16 October
US and European share markets fell sharply on Friday in response to the latest threatened re-escalation in the trade war between the US and China. The 2.7% fall in US shares after Trump threatened additional tariffs on China left it down 2.4% for...[Read More]